FXUS64 KSHV 191744 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1244 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Very diffuse frontal boundary late this morning is slowly backdooring itself southward across Northern Louisiana and Deep East Texas attm. Latest progs confirm that this boundary will continue its slow southward drift through the day and may be a sfc trigger for isolated showers/storms across our far southern zones later today. Further north, going to hold onto slight chance pops as well as latest CAMS and HRRR suggests that we could see some post frontal development and this is certainly possible given the fact that the 850mb boundary remains north of our region attm. All this to say no changes to the pop forecast for the remainder of the day. Did however raise temps slightly across the I-20 Corridor of N LA as 15z temps were within a couple degrees of forecast highs even through the frontal boundary drifting southward should slow the warming trend. All other areas are in the ballpark so no additional changes were necessary. 13 && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 A slowly advancing frontal boundary continues to shift SE near the I-30 corridor early this morning, evident by the wind shift to the NW and subsequent cool air advection. Ambient temperatures are in the upper 50s to mid 60s north of the boundary compared to mostly in the 70s south. As for convection, the only activity remains to our north near the Little Rock metro area where a shortwave is contributing to a few isolated strong to severe storms. With the relative lack of forcing across our region today, convection will remain hard to come by aside from just some very isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm as the cold front continues its slow but steady progression SE throughout the day. The speed of the front could be problematic in terms of the high temperature forecast for today, resulting in quite a spread from the mid and upper 60s NW to the lower and mid 80s SE. By early this evening, the cold front should be very near if not clearing our far southern zones just as a series of shortwave impulses begin to emerge across North Texas into the Middle Red River Valley. As the first in this series of shortwave impulses transitions through the W/SW flow pattern starting late tonight through Saturday, expect showers to gradually become widespread with embedded thunderstorms increasingly likely later in the day on Saturday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler following fropa with little movement expected throughout the day as highs only manage the mid and upper 50s north into the lower 60s along I-20 and slightly warmer farther south. /19/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Convection will remain ongoing with the bulk of rainfall likely coming on Saturday night through the first half of Sunday as the primary shortwave pivots overhead. Total event rainfall amounts will generally range from 1-3 inches across the region with the heavier totals expected along and near the I-20 corridor. This additional rainfall on top of what has already fallen earlier in the month will likely contribute to more rises on area waterways, albeit not to the degree that was previously observed based on the current rainfall projections. Regardless, expect the ongoing minor river flooding to persist along our area waterways still in flood, likely extending well into next week if not longer. As the last in this series of shortwaves finally departs by late Sunday, dry weather will return and continue through early next week. Advancing high pressure will eventually shift east of the region by late Monday into early Tuesday, resulting in southerly return flow and a warming trend that will push temperatures back near seasonal averages for late April. Near zonal flow aloft will continue through Tuesday before the pattern becomes more unsettled by mid to late week. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak trough advancing eastward from the Plains into mid-section of the country by Tuesday night into Wednesday with fairly low-end rain chances across our region. However, a much more potent trough is progged to shift our direction by the end of next week, showing signals of our next potential for severe weather by the end of this forecast period next Friday. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Terminal forecast remains sloppy as hazardous flight conditions will materialize across the airspace late tonight and through the period tomorrow. This will include multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA starting as early as 20/09z. Along with this, reduced VSBY across the terminals is to be expected as a result of low CIGs and the aforementioned precip hazards through the period. Restrictions down to IFR, potentially even LIFR, is possible as a result of heavy precip associated with any TSRA and heavier BR evolution. Very little improvement is to be expected through this TAF period and likely the next as this will hold the bulk of the weather expected. Under any TSRA/SHRA, terminal winds will trend VRB, but the trend is for winds to remain northeasterly, remaining on the elevated side between 10-15 kts. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 57 63 51 64 / 40 80 90 30 MLU 56 63 50 62 / 20 60 90 50 DEQ 49 57 46 65 / 70 90 80 10 TXK 53 57 48 64 / 60 90 90 20 ELD 49 58 46 63 / 50 80 90 30 TYR 57 62 50 64 / 60 90 100 20 GGG 56 62 49 64 / 50 80 100 20 LFK 64 74 51 65 / 20 70 90 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...53