FXUS64 KJAN 220254
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
954 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Another dry evening is underway and no adjustments were necessary
for the overnight forecast in this near term update. A fairly
impressive subtropical jet by September standards is supporting a
disturbance over the ArkLaTex region, but the moisture with this
system might fare better moving through a brick wall vs the ridge
that is place. /EC/

&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Through Tomorrow:

A shortwave ridge over the South-Central U.S. will be the prevailing
feature over our forecast area through tonight. A shortwave trough
disturbance riding along the east side of the ridge tonight into
tomorrow will however bring an increase in mid-level moisture and
chances for rain as we head into tomorrow. Dry air and surface high
pressure will be reinforced over the U.S. Southeast behind the
potential tropical cyclone off the South Carolina coast, and it
appears that portions of our forecast area could still see afternoon
RH values fall to around 30 percent tomorrow where mixing occurs -
east of better rain chances.

Saturday through Thursday:

Whatever develops from the low pressure system over the western
Atlantic, that will be moving onshore through the Mid Atlantic and
Northeast over the weekend, with dry air still being reinforced
across much of the central and eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast
region through Saturday.  Model guidance show shortwave energy
moving through the southern jet stream over the weekend and into
early next week may be enough to squeeze out some shower and
thunderstorm chances in our area as some deeper moisture is advected
over the region. The various models handle this challenging scenario
differently, so overall confidence in rain at a particular location
is not high. But it's a chance, and we are going to hope for some
decent rain in part of the area. Otherwise, the back half of next
week looks drier as trough energy consolidates over the eastern
CONUS and a ridge amplifies over the Rockies and High Plains. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the
forecast period. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  66  91  66 /   0   0  10   0
Meridian      90  63  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     92  67  89  67 /   0   0  30  10
Hattiesburg   93  65  92  66 /   0   0  10   0
Natchez       92  68  90  68 /   0   0  30  10
Greenville    90  66  87  66 /   0  10  30  10
Greenwood     90  66  89  65 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/NF/EC