FXUS64 KJAN 241916
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
216 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

For the tonight period to Wednesday May 1st...the overall take on
the forecast is mostly above normal and warm for temperatures
with a focus on a couple interesting periods. The first being
Saturday for increased winds/gusts of 30-40 mph then a opportunity
for rain/storms early next week.

The near term is generally quiet with a weak front making it way
into the N sections of the forecast now and will stall later
tonight. Some low end precip chances will exist on Thursday across
the N due to the proximity of the front and a weakening wave moving
out of AR. As we wrap up the week and get into the weekend, the
pattern will favor stronger ridging to develop just to our E while a
more potent trough and stronger system moves into the Plains.

With the system impacting the Plains more on Fri-Sun, our area will
still be under the influence of mid/upper ridging. However, we will
see a tightening pressure gradient by Friday. Look for some breezy
conditions on Friday, but strong winds by Saturday with decent
potential to see wind gusts of 30-40 mph by Saturday afternoon. I
will add a graphic to highlight that threat.

Most precip/storm activity will remain to our W/NW into the weekend.
However, by later Sunday afternoon/night...we should see a weakening
ridge thus increased potential to get precip/storms into our W/NW by
this time. NBM Guidance captures the probability well and fits the
potential progression.

For Monday-Tuesday...Uncertainty is quite high to start the week as
our area will see a mid/upper trough move into and across the area.
While a signal is consistent for the trough and resulting rain/storm
chances, the specifics and details will matter and we're very far
from getting that that. This is the time of year where convective
activity across the S Plains wreaks havoc on predictability for us.
MCS's often develop to our W/NW and translating boundaries and
remnant MCVs set the stage for activity the following day. Global
guidance is offering such solutions, but timing, shear/cold pool
orientation are varying, thus instability and potential for any
strong/svr storms is quite variable. Best course at this time is to
follow the consensus guidance and note there's potential for
rain/storms with some possibility for svr/heavy rains, but overall
confidence is low.

For mid-week, the signal is much better as the governing pattern
shifts to one of building heights as a ridge axis gets established.
This will bring quiet conditions, but warmer and above normal to
start May. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Much of the TAF period is quiet with VFR conditions. Towards
sunrise Thu, there's some potential for reduced ceilings/vis for
PIB/HBG. Guidance is aggressive for ceilings reaching IFR but I'm
more lower confidence due to the lack of boundary layer winds.
However, I've included it in the official TAF but for only like a
2-3hr window. Look for improving and mostly VFR (some brief MVFR)
on Thu. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       59  83  62  84 /  10  10   0   0
Meridian      57  83  61  86 /  10  10   0   0
Vicksburg     62  84  64  85 /   0  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   59  86  62  85 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       60  84  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    62  80  64  83 /  10  20   0   0
Greenwood     59  81  64  83 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/