FXUS64 KJAN 170526 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 844 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 With most of the area worked over by earlier convection, the radar scope is much clearer early this evening, though there are still a few showers lingering across north LA and south AR. Though we are still keeping an eye on the potential for nocturnal/early morning redevelopment, the most recent CAM runs have been less prolific with QPF and slower to redevelop convection than runs earlier this afternoon. Still, it seems quite likely that activity will develop earlier in the day tomorrow much like it did today. Otherwise, development of low stratus is likely across much of the area overnight and patchy fog cannot be ruled out. No big changes are planned to the near term forecast at this time. /DL/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Tonight through Tuesday night: Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough axis just to the west of our CWA. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge nosing west across the northern Gulf. The combined deep south to southwest flow was helping maintain our moist airmass with a PWAT of two inches. This deep moisture combined with daytime heating was lighting up local radars with scattered to numerous coverage of convection outside of our delta region. The convection was moving up from the south and will continue to expand across the delta region and northern zones through early evening before waining with the loss of daytime heating. The local microburst checklist showed a slight chance this afternoon but some of the early convection has held temperatures a little cooler than expected so far. Although model consensus progs very little convection overnight, a few hi-res models indicate potential redevelop along with very high rainfall rates over the western portions of our delta. The shortwave trough will become centered over our CWA Tuesday and weaken through Tuesday night. The surface ridge to our south will remain in place so Tuesday will likely be very similar to today. Daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to scattered to numerous convection that will likely get an early start in the south again. The early start to convection and associated cloud cover will help afternoon highs cooler than normal. The convection will show a distinct diurnal trend and gradually dissipate during the evening. Wednesday through Sunday: Wednesday another shortwave trough will be dropping through the central Plains. This shortwave trough will be supporting a surface low that will send a weak cold front our way. The daytime convection will be more focused over our southeast but Wednesday night into Thursday rain chances will increase across our north as the cold front and associated convection spreads into our CWA. The cold front is expected to stall across our northern zones Thursday afternoon before drifting back north Thursday night. By Friday wl still have a surface ridge to our south but wl start to become under the influence of a 594dam high from the west. This high will be shifting east and become centered over the southeast state Saturday and strengthen over the southeast states Sunday. This will lead to lower rain chances over our CWA along with afternoon highs topping out a degree or two warmer each afternoon in the mid 90s. The high temperatures combined with high humidity will lead to peak heat index values between 105F and 110F. As the first day of Summer will start Friday evening it seems rather appropriate that a heat related graphic and product be carried at that time. /22/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Mostly VFR conditions prevail at TAF sites tonight, but expect an increase in low clouds and a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions over the next few hours. Showers will continue across the area overnight also. Expect improving ceilings after 14-15Z, but showers/thunderstorms will increase in coverage during the late morning into the afternoon hours and this will bring occasional MVFR/IFR conditions once again/15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 87 73 91 73 / 70 10 40 10 Meridian 88 72 91 73 / 80 10 60 10 Vicksburg 87 74 91 74 / 60 0 20 10 Hattiesburg 90 74 93 75 / 80 10 70 10 Natchez 87 73 89 73 / 70 0 40 10 Greenville 87 74 90 74 / 70 0 10 20 Greenwood 86 73 91 74 / 80 10 20 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15