FXUS64 KJAN 092341 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 541 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 Through Monday: A colder post-frontal air mass continues to work its way southward today, with most observations sites in our CWA reporting temps in the 50s and 60s as of around 2 pm. The cold front had reached the Pine Belt of southern MS, but warmer pre-existing conditions were slowing daytime progression there and temps were in the 80s at Hattiesburg, McComb and Columbia. Under the more persistent cloud cover and continued cold advection in the north, Cleveland and Greenville were reporting temps below 50 degrees at 2 pm. The chill will continue to set in after dark, with lows ranging from around 40 to around 50 across the area. Post-frontal cloud cover will linger tomorrow with most sites near or below normal for highs. The potential for more breaks in clouds to the south will allow for potentially above normal temps in the afternoon, but that is uncertain. Overnight drizzle is possible and spotty showers of sprinkles will hang around with low-level moisture in place. Tuesday through Sunday: Zonal flow aloft early this week will begin to amplify as a deepening trough over the Rocky Mountains by midweek turns upper- level flow from the southwest. Resulting adiabatic lift and saturation through the atmosphere along the Gulf Coast Tuesday and Wednesday will bring periods of heavy rain to our forecast area. It appears that two impulses will bring the potential for heavy rain in quick succession: one Monday night into Tuesday and the other Tuesday night into Wednesday. PWAT values of 1.5 inches or greater are near the seasonal max for mid February, so efficient rainfall production is possible as moisture lifts across the frontal zone. The Limited Flood risk graphic remains in place, though the second round of rain could be more problematic if it overspreads the same area of rain from Tuesday's round. Averaged rainfall amounts of 3"-4" from around Alexandria, LA to Meridian, MS and northward Tuesday through Thursday will increase river flooding potential and the risk for flash flooding in low lying and urban areas. The progressive pattern in the wake of this rain event will bring the next quick warmup next weekend. Severe weather isn't entirely out of the question midweek, but flow over the frontal zone will align deep-layer shear vectors and mean flow vectors parallel to the front. Instability to the south would be a source for increased rainfall production however. The weekend system may pose more of a severe weather risk for Saturday with a more amplified wave and potential favorable timing and moisture return flow to increase instability. Will continue to monitor trends for this time frame. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 A mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings is currently ongoing across all TAF sites to start off the period. The cold front is now south along the Hwy 84 corridor. This has lead to the stratus deck clearing mainly for areas along and south of the I-20 corridor. Areas south of I-20 will continue to see VFR ceilings until 07Z Monday. MVFR conditions will occur across all TAF sites through 12Z Monday. Ceilings will continue under MVFR status through Monday night with ceilings dropping down to MVFR/IFR conditions along with reduced visibility by daybreak Tuesday as the rain moves through the forecast area around this timeframe. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 45 61 52 75 / 20 20 10 70 Meridian 45 60 50 76 / 10 10 10 60 Vicksburg 43 57 48 69 / 20 20 10 80 Hattiesburg 53 68 57 80 / 10 10 10 50 Natchez 46 64 53 77 / 10 10 10 60 Greenville 39 48 45 51 / 20 20 30 100 Greenwood 41 52 46 59 / 20 20 20 90 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/NF/CR