FXUS64 KJAN 100859 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 359 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022 .DISCUSSION... Today and Tonight: another cooler than normal day with numerous coverage of storms capable of locally heavy rain is expected across the CWA. The 00Z Wed JAN sounding had a PWAT of 2.08 inches and satellite derived total precipitable water product showed greater than two inches across the region. This moist airmass will be maintained today by low level southerly flow around a >1020mb surface ridge across our CWA from the east. Our CWA will also remain in the weakness between a stout mid level high centered just northeast of the Four Corners region and another mid level high centered over the southeast coast. Satellite imagery also showed a weak shortwave dropping over the Ozarks that wl continue southeast over our CWA by afternoon to help enhance convection. Although regional radars are currently quiet, model consensus suggests convective initiation just west of our western most zones during the next several hours, getting an early start over our Louisiana parishes. Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected over the western portions of the CWA today but locally heavy rainfall of several inches in a short amount of time will be possible areawide through the afternoon. Some of this activity will last into the evening but should diminish by midnight. The early convection and associated cloud cover will help hold afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s which is cooler than normal. Temperatures tonight will bottom out close to normal again. /22/ Thursday through next Tuesday...This period of wet weather will continue across the forecast area as we end the work week. Weak troughing still holding across the region, in addition to an abundance of moisture, will continue to result in a good coverage of showers and storms across the forecast area through Friday, especially during the afternoon hours. This will further be aided by a frontal boundary that's progged to drop south southwest through the region Friday into Friday night. Behind the boundary, ridging from the west will try to strengthen a bit across the region, with north to northwesterly flow setting up and persisting into early next week. Meanwhile at the surface, north winds will advect in a slightly drier and "cooler" airmass for the weekend. Rain chances will still exist across portions of the CWA during this time. This will be primarily be during the heat of the afternoon, with coverage being significantly less compared to Thursday and Friday as the better chances will be confined to mainly southern portions of the area. Southerly flow will begin returning to the forecast area Monday into Tuesday. This will of course result in both temperatures and humidity levels warming across the region, as dew points climb back into the middle 70s over much of the area come Tuesday. This setup will also result in isolated to scattered showers and storms becoming more widespread across the forecast area, with possibly another frontal boundary trying to drop into the CWA overnight Tuesday. /19/ && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF discussion: The SHRA/TSRA activity has dissipated and no additional activity is expected until after 11Z. The greatest coverage of activity is expected between 17Z and 22Z today before diminishing again after 23Z. VFR conditions were noted at 06Z at the TAF sites. Patchy IFR/LIFR conditions wl be psbl after 08Z and lasting through 13Z but VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening away from TSRA. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 86 71 86 72 / 74 45 81 27 Meridian 89 71 87 72 / 75 50 73 24 Vicksburg 85 71 87 71 / 75 45 67 24 Hattiesburg 88 71 87 72 / 84 46 86 20 Natchez 85 71 85 71 / 75 41 79 28 Greenville 84 71 87 72 / 76 44 49 17 Greenwood 86 71 89 72 / 82 41 55 21 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 19/22