FXUS64 KJAN 220254 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 954 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Another dry evening is underway and no adjustments were necessary for the overnight forecast in this near term update. A fairly impressive subtropical jet by September standards is supporting a disturbance over the ArkLaTex region, but the moisture with this system might fare better moving through a brick wall vs the ridge that is place. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Through Tomorrow: A shortwave ridge over the South-Central U.S. will be the prevailing feature over our forecast area through tonight. A shortwave trough disturbance riding along the east side of the ridge tonight into tomorrow will however bring an increase in mid-level moisture and chances for rain as we head into tomorrow. Dry air and surface high pressure will be reinforced over the U.S. Southeast behind the potential tropical cyclone off the South Carolina coast, and it appears that portions of our forecast area could still see afternoon RH values fall to around 30 percent tomorrow where mixing occurs - east of better rain chances. Saturday through Thursday: Whatever develops from the low pressure system over the western Atlantic, that will be moving onshore through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast over the weekend, with dry air still being reinforced across much of the central and eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast region through Saturday. Model guidance show shortwave energy moving through the southern jet stream over the weekend and into early next week may be enough to squeeze out some shower and thunderstorm chances in our area as some deeper moisture is advected over the region. The various models handle this challenging scenario differently, so overall confidence in rain at a particular location is not high. But it's a chance, and we are going to hope for some decent rain in part of the area. Otherwise, the back half of next week looks drier as trough energy consolidates over the eastern CONUS and a ridge amplifies over the Rockies and High Plains. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail through the forecast period. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 92 66 91 66 / 0 0 10 0 Meridian 90 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 92 67 89 67 / 0 0 30 10 Hattiesburg 93 65 92 66 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 92 68 90 68 / 0 0 30 10 Greenville 90 66 87 66 / 0 10 30 10 Greenwood 90 66 89 65 / 0 0 10 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/NF/EC