FXUS64 KJAN 240239 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 939 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 928 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Although the evening has been mostly clear over the CWA, latest satellite imagery is showing development of a layer of stratus to our south that is progged to become widespread overnight and linger through much of Friday morning. This layer of clouds combined with a warm moist southerly flow will lead to much warmer than normal morning lows. The forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. /22/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 Low level dry air over the southeast half has promoted deep mixing and temperatures rising into the lower 80s this afternoon. To the northwest, warm advection plume in advance of strong mid/upper level system moving into the Plains continues to spread cloud cover and increasing PWs over the Southern MS River Valley. Boundary layer cooling tonight will allow another deck of stratus to once again spread over the area after midnight and linger through much of the morning Friday. Despite the abundant cloud cover, after a warm start in the 60s, temperatures will easily rise into the 80s during the afternoon. Despite increasing instability and shear, a strong mid level cap will limit convective potential through much of the day. Strong ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper system will erode the cap sufficiently for scattered deeper storms to begin to develop by mid to late afternoon over AR/LA and far western MS. More widespread and intense convection will follow moving into the early evening as the associated cold front and pre-frontal trough approach the area./GG/ Friday night through late next week... Active weather will be the story for the beginning of the extended forecast period as two severe weather events impact the region this weekend. The main focus will be a significant severe event that is expected to impact the region Friday night with all hazards possible, including strong tornadoes. The other looks to be primarily a hail and wind threat that impacts southern portions of the area Sunday afternoon. An upper ridge to the southeast, and upper trough to the northwest, aid in strong return flow ahead of a potent system Friday night. Negative tilt of the trough should aid in deepening a surface low over the the ArkLaTex as it traverses northeastward. An upper level jet associated with this trough will be oriented SW to NE across the ArkLaMiss. Tightening pressure gradient from the rapidly deepening low leads to a strengthening low level jet, with speeds of 55-65 kts. Guidance continues to show mid to upper 60s dewpoints, 1000- 1500 J/Kg SBCAPE, and steep low level lapse rates of 8+ C/Km in the open warm sector. This very unstable airmass coupled with ample deep layer shear, should lead to robust storm development ahead of a surface cold front. Discrete supercell mode is expected initially in the warm sector aided by prefrontal confluence, which will increase tornado threat, especially strong tornadoes in the late evening hours. As storms progress across the southern Mississippi Delta, some storms could congeal into broken line segments, combined with 40-50 kt 0-3 km bulk shear, QLCS tornadoes could be possible. This will especially be the case in any bowing segments oriented NW to SE. In addition to the tornado threat, strong damaging wind gusts of greater than 70 MPH, and large hail up to golf ball size, are likely, with deep shear and steep mid level lapse rates. SE ridge influence will diminish severe threat as the storms progress eastward, generally after 2 - 3 AM Saturday morning, although some hazards will still be possible before moving out by daybreak. Looking ahead to Sunday, a second event is possible with hail and wind being primary threats. As a warm front lifts north from the coast, warm moist air returns to southern parts of the area mid to late Sunday afternoon. The warm frontal boundary, coupled with unstable air, could be enough to trigger strong to severe thunderstorms across the southern half of the area. Some of these storms could linger into Monday before the warm sags southward Monday afternoon. Looking into mid to late next week, the pattern remains generally quiet with ridging building in. The next rain chances look to be around mid to late next week./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 VFR conditions wl prevail until after 05Z when MVFR cigs wl develop from the south and spread across the whole area. MVFR cigs wl prevail until after 18Z when they are expected to improve to VFR. In addition a gusty south wind 25-30kts wl develop by 12Z and continue through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 66 85 63 80 / 10 50 90 0 Meridian 63 84 64 83 / 10 10 90 10 Vicksburg 68 84 62 80 / 10 70 90 0 Hattiesburg 64 84 66 85 / 10 20 70 10 Natchez 67 84 64 81 / 10 60 80 0 Greenville 67 81 60 76 / 10 70 90 0 Greenwood 68 83 61 77 / 0 50 100 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ GG/SAS20/22