FXUS64 KLCH 152315 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 615 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Acadiana until 7 PM this evening. Highs in the upper 90s to 100F and humidity will result in heat indices in the 108 to 111F range. - An upper level ridge will remain in place across the northern gulf coast through the middle of next week keeping afternoon highs above normal in the mid 90s to near 100 with maximum heat indices in the 105-111F range. - No appreciable precipitation chances exist through the next seven days. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Afternoon satellite analysis and 15th/18Z sounding illustrates very little mixing occurring during this Saturday afternoon / evening as the surface high pressure centers directly overhead. Weak low level flow on satellite shows cumulus building inland from coastal SETX and veering back offshore over Acadiana. From the sounding, winds rather stagnant at or below 10kts between the surface and 350mb. Heat Advisory remains in place across Acadiana and the I-49 corridor until 7PM this evening. Blended guidances has been suggesting the likely spread of dewpoints will range lower than the deterministic output largely across much of the area- sans locations right along larger lakes / rivers. Basis current surface observations today where RH is trending slightly lower than forecast roughly in the 25th-50th Percentile range, the forecast analysis does not support another Heat Advisory for Sunday, at this moment. However... It should be noted, that conditions are very borderline to advisory criteria along Acadiana and northern tier counties across SETX. People are still highly encouraged to exercise caution being outdoors in this weather to avoid heat related illnesses despite persisting conditions trending lower than dangerous levels while still above the normal climatology for the region. Better put, as my colleague wrote last night- Keep an eye on others, hydrate!!!!!, don't walk your dogs on exposed pavement during daylight hours, stick to the shade or avoid outdoor exposure when possible. Look to your local municipalities for local heat assistance. Monday, the surface high pressure will have some eastward acceleration toward the SECONUS. We will still be receiving light south / southwesterly onshore flow. The addition of increased surface flow, even by a few knots, may help to hedge dewpoints a few degrees warmer. Combined with accumulated heat, surface temperatures are likely to trend in the upper 90s to around 100F, particularly across interior locations north of HWY 190. Upper 90's to near 100F will be a steady forecast through the middle of the upcoming week. With no appreciable precipitation in sight, heat related impacts will continue to remain a concern. Additionally, dry fuels such as grass / small brush vegetation will become more susceptible to wildfires as KBDI increases through the week. By Thursday into Friday, there is a hint of a pattern change coming into the lens of the long range outlook. Upper air pattern begins to modify the northern Jet southward across the Central Plains and potentially interact with weak upper level trough along the coast. Thus, isolated PoPs start to work their way into the forecast moving toward Thursday and Friday. That being said it remains uncertain whether or not more significant forcing from the north will be able to tie in with the upper level trough to initiate convective rainfall. For now count on a mainly dry but hot forecast through Wednesday, with only low end isolated chances entering at the end of the forecast period. Kowalski / 30 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 VFR conditions are anticipated through the period. Winds will be VRB tonight and become SW at 4 to 8 kts tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Surface high pressure ridge extending west from the northeast Gulf will keep a southerly fetch in place over the period. Winds will prevail below 10 knots, which also keeps seas low. A greater high pressure dome will remain in place overhead through the start of next week keeping conditions hot and dry with no rain chances expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026 High pressure dominating the forecast will keep conditions very hot and dry through next week. Daytime temperatures will drive into the upper 90s to lower 100s with RH minimums in the 30 to 50 percent range. The combination of heat and dry will further exacerbate the dry antecedent conditions. KBDI will range 550-730, with the higher values located along and northeast of the I-49 corridor through Monday. && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ028-029-032-033- 044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE/MARINE...30 AVIATION...05