FXUS64 KLCH 141123 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 523 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very strong north winds will develop after sunrise bringing much colder and drier air into the region. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the region. - Several hours of sub-freezing temperatures and wind chills in the teens are expected Sunday night into Monday morning. All vulnerable parties/infrastructure should take caution. - Inland Deep Southeast Texas and central Louisiana are expected to see Hard Freeze conditions for several hours Monday morning. - Milder weather slowly builds back into the forecast area through the middle of this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 An area of prefrontal showers and thunderstorms is working its way south and east through the forecast area. Storms are a bit stronger than previous thinking, working overtime to maximize on the estimated ~1000 to 1250 J of MUCAPE present nearly exclusively in deep southeast Texas and south central Louisiana (lucky us!) The real story is written within the theta-e sfc plot. An incredibly sharp gradient of much cooler and drier air is pushing south, acting almost as a reverse theta-e moisture gradient, squeezing the marginally unstable airmass up til it reaches free lift. The elevated nature of storms and strong winds off the deck are pulling those elevated winds towards the sfc in isolated waves resulting in storms with sub-severe gusts and periodic downpours. The gradient will continue its march south through the early pre- dawn hours, washing all remaining convection offshore by sunrise. Trof axis drops east of the forecast area thru the day today. Resulting pressure gradient between trof axis moving north to south thru cenMS and developing ridge in cenTX will offer a localized enhancement to wind speeds resulting in a rather windy day. Sustained north winds 15 to 20 MPH with frequent gusts up to 35 MPH are expected across portions of central and south Louisiana and extreme coastal southeast Texas during daytime hours today. Decorations which carry sentimental or monetary value should be stowed or secured. Conditions rapidly improve with the eviction of this springtime airmass by much kinder, seasonally appropriate cold and dry airmass by afternoon. This very cold airmass will really show off into Monday morning with lows in the 21 to 29F range area-wide. Temps will plummet with sundown, so most areas will see below 32F for 8 to 15 hours from Sunday night until Monday mid-morning. Those in cenLA will see the longest duration and coldest temps with temps 21 to 25 expected for several hours. A Freeze Watch for Hard Freeze conditions has been issued for this area. All other areas are under a Freeze Watch for temps 26 to 29F (above a hard freeze but still impactful.) Winds will have largely subsided by the coldest hours Monday, however, they will remain elevated enough to bring about wind chill concerns for those outdoors at around sunrise. All areas are within a Cold Weather Advisory for wind chills 17 to 20 degrees. Those traveling early Monday AM: dress appropriately as these temps can cause health issues with prolonged exposure. Now is the time to take care of your cold weather preparation. Remember the 4 P's: people, pets, pipes and plants. Monday will see highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s under clear skies. Return flow develops Tuesday as high moves to the east. Temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s and returning moisture can be anticipated. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Upper shortwave pulse moves into cenTX on Wednesday, further enhancing returning moisture and aiding in warming temps. It shall feel like late spring oncemore with temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s and humid daytime conditions. Upper wave moves overhead late Wednesday or early Thursday with passing showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms possible Wednesday. Patterns aloft appear to become rather zonal into the end of the longterm meaning a persistence forecast will be in place without any breaking fronts. Temps in the mid to upper 70s and moist conditions are on the menu up to the final days before Christmas. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Cold front has moved through all the terminals with only KARA seeing some rain showers until about 14/14z. Otherwise, low clouds with MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely until about 14/18z when VFR conditions are expected that will persist for the remainder of the period. Main story will be the strong north winds that will last until about 15/00z with gusts near 30 knots. 07/Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Strong northerly, offshore flow will develop as a cold front washes down into the central Gulf this morning. Sea conditions will rapidly degrade with the front passage early this morning and Gale force conditions are expected to develop by mid morning. Strongest winds will not occur around low tide time, so low water conditions are not anticipated. The gradient starts to relax into the early evening and winds will gradually diminish into Monday morning. Seas will fall slowly, lagging behind winds, but conditions should largely be improved by late Monday or early Tuesday. Onshore winds resume by early Wednesday as high moves off to the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Very cold and dry airmass will move into the region today, brought on by robust northerly flow. North winds 15 to 25 MPH with frequent gusts up to 35 MPH are expected during daytime hours today. Minimum RH values will range from 35 to 45 percent today and 25 to 35 percent Monday. Antecedent moist ground conditions should keep most fire weather conditions at bay today, however burning is not suggested in such strong winds. Onshore winds and returning moisture develop on Wednesday as high pressure moves to the east of the region. Temps return to the 70s with daytime RH values in the 50 to 75 percent range from Wednesday to the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 45 21 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 55 27 50 34 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 53 26 50 32 / 30 0 0 0 BPT 58 27 51 37 / 10 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Monday for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. Freeze Watch from this evening through Monday morning for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243- 252>254. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ028-029-032-033- 044-045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Monday for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. Freeze Watch from this evening through Monday morning for TXZ180- 201-259>262-515-516-615-616. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ515-516-615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ430-432-435- 436. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ450-452. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ450-452-470-472-475. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST tonight for GMZ450-452. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ455. Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...07