FXUS64 KLCH 252059 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 359 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Main story concerning the short range forecast will be the onset of strong winds across the marine zones and inland interests which will trend through the weekend. At present time, there is a Small Craft Advisory for portions of the coastal lake, bays, and Gulf of Mexico taking effect tonight through 10PM CDT Friday night. Do note, inland winds and gusts approach, but remain just shy of sustained criteria for wind advisory during periods of this time. Confidence is strong enough to stand down on a high wind watch. However, brief periods of sustained winds near 35mph or occasional gusts approaching 45 MPH are not out of the question. With the National Blend of Model staying fairly congruent with many deterministic ensembles regarding the pressure gradient and general timing, a Wind Advisory is most certainly possible inland-likely later in the short range trending into the long range- to complement the small craft advisory already set for the marine zones. Touching further on the marine zones particularly south of the Sabine and Calcasieu channels, do expect near gales to gale gusts to occur periodically through Saturday into Sunday. Further note, these elevated winds and gusts will contain SE components which will make direct north / south navigation difficult on large profile vessels. For high profile vehicles, these conditions will also make it difficult to maintain control during the period of stronger winds/gusts. Currently, a 996mb low pressure is deepening east of the Colorado Rockies with moderate troughing extending south into northern Mexico. Upstream of the Low, a large area of subsidence occupies east of the Mississippi where high pressure is modifying into the western Atlantic waters by Friday afternoon. While the high pressure cell maximizes near Cape Cod, ridging will extend SSW across the SE CONUS into the central Gulf of Mexico before slackening to low pressure over the TX/MEX coast. A progressive upper air pattern over the central plains will lift north of the subtropical ridge over SE CONUS. Thus, the shortwave and abovementioned low pressure will slowly move into the upper Midwest through early Saturday morning while the cold front extending south transitions to a dry line trough. Due to strong moisture advection ahead of the trough, very minimal POPS develop over portions of SETX and far SWLA, but should diminish by the daylight hours Saturday. However, in place will be the steep gradient influencing gusty conditions at the surface. Despite dominate cloudy conditions, diurnal temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80’s through Saturday afternoon. Winds will continue to increase through the early evening hours, before slight easing occurs after daybreak Sunday when a secondary impulse from the Pacific accelerates across the western CONUS and helps broaden / fill the low pressure gradient across the central / southern plains. Kowalski/30 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 For Sunday, a mid to upper level shortwave and accompanying surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle expected to move north northeast through Monday. The surface low with stronger high pressure across the East Coast will keep a tight pressure gradient over our region Sunday with ongoing southerly winds around 20-25 mph with gusts 30- 35 mph likely. The main area of lift expected to remain to our north and northwest, along with the greatest threat of severe weather for Sunday. However, the diffluent flow aloft will allow for increased chances of showers and thunderstorms north of I-10 by Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, with the highest chances expected Monday around 50-70%. WPC has areas outlined in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall north of I-10 over SE TX/C LA for Monday, with a Marginal Risk elsewhere. Chances diminish down to 30-50% for Tuesday afternoon, and 20% or less for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will remain above normal with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. 08/DML && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 FEW to SCT around are in place around 2-3kft with some patches of clear skies or higher BKN stratus. Winds will increase during the overnight hours primarily out of the south with some SE components offsetting ~15 to the east with gusts 20-25kts by sunrise. Cloud cover will also lower through the evening with ceilings becoming MVFR during the late overnight hours into the early morning for most sites. Winds aloft will mix out the potential for FG/BR, however, some slight reductions in vis with haze is not out of the question. S-SSE winds will continues to increase through the morning into early afternoon Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Starting on today winds will start to increase becoming moderate to strong. Winds will continue to increase on Friday with gusts up to 30 knots. The elevated winds will continue on Saturday as well before weakening on Sunday. Waves will also build in the outer waters reaching 7 feet or more by Friday morning. Lakes and bays will be rough to very rough conditions. A Small Craft Advisory is likely starting on Thursday night and lasting through Saturday as the pressure gradient further tightens across the area building seas further into the weekend under a strong southerly regime. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 65 84 68 86 / 0 0 10 10 LCH 69 82 71 84 / 0 0 10 0 LFT 69 84 71 86 / 0 0 10 0 BPT 70 83 71 84 / 0 0 20 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Friday for GMZ430-432-450-452-470-472. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...30