FXUS64 KLIX 152000 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 200 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 158 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Small Craft Advisory in effect for a few more hours but winds are subsiding and will not be above 20kts much longer. - Areas east of I-55 and along/north of I-12 are forecast to briefly fall below freezing around sunrise Friday. - There is a potential for a mixture of frozen precip (sleet and/or snow) Saturday night across portions of the area. It appears to be a short window of opportunity mainly east of I-55 and north of I-12 in LA then into the MS Coast - Near Cold Weather Advisory wind chills Saturday night along and north of a line from Baton Rouge to Pascagoula. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 A very amplified upper level trough, now east of the CWA, extends from Ontario/Quebec all the way down into the central Gulf of America. Although its very deep, its also sharper than many this time year and that matters in terms of impacts on temps. So while lows again drop into the 30 (sub-freezing east of I-55 and along/north of I-12 in LA + MS Coast) by Friday, highs will rebound substantially and max out in the mid to upper 60s. Current local obs indicated temps in mid 40s to lower 50s, so that's 15-20 degree jump from where they are now. Otherwise, quite benign weather expected through the day on Friday. MEFFER && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Main weather impacts beyond tomorrow come into play Saturday. The setup is one that occasionally brings snow to the local area but not one of high totals if any at all. It begins with a shortwave rolling through the base on the main trough on Friday. This brings back cooler continental airmass into the northern Gulf Coast and realized on Saturday with highs in the 50s. Can't give all the credit to airmass for below climate highs as afternoon cloud deck developing will certainly play a part in it. You're not alone if you're thinking it's like riding a rollercoaster with temps this week and upcoming weekend. Stepping forward into Saturday evening through the overnight period, another shortwave moving southward through the main trough causes it to sharpen as that axis moves southward from the Central Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. That sharpening causes flow around the base of the trough to accelerate. That acceleration then increases positive vorticity advection downstream on the east/SE side of the trough axis, which at this point is over southern LA/MS/AL. Forced ascent from the PVA starts and then enhances frontogenesis along the LA and MS coasts around midnight. Although that's a big part of what's necessary for precip to begin to develop, it won't happen without moisture advection. We see 700mb west to southwest winds increasing Sat evening with the approach of the trough. From then until midnight, model soundings show this portion of the column +/- 150mb saturating. It's not until midnight that the -10 to -20 dendritic zone can support and produce snow flakes. Its over the following 3-6 hours that the magic happens...or doesn't happen. Timing of low level cold air advection is quite critical as too warm means only rain. The warmth of Lake Pontchartrain might play a key part into this as well as water temps are in the mid 50s and may be enough to keep anything froze from developing on the southshore. If you were hoping for lake effect snow like what you might see in say Michigan, don't get your hopes up. Realistically though, better chance for temp profile support where best moisture advection forthe longest time is north of Lake Pontchartrain and east of I-55. And for that matter, really best shot if any is along the MS coastal counties. Confidence for frozen precip still remains low overall b/c such a small window of opportunity and quite a few chances for failure (not cold enough, moisture stays south of the CWA, dry air moves in too fast). Have seen many similar scenarios in the last decade or 2 where nothing materialized due to lack of moisture and/or continental dry air moving in too quickly. Regardless, if any snow or sleet develops, warm ground temps should keep anything from sticking on roadways with only low potential on metal or grassy areas. Then, by midday temps are already well into the 40s. The remainder of the forecast period will be characterized by below normal temps but no rain expected. MEFFER && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Generally light winds expected through the forecast period with a wind shift overnight from north to south as surface high pressure slides east across the region. Satellite shows clear skies in place and that will support VFR conditions until Friday night. MEFFER && .MARINE... Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Sustained northwesterly winds of 20 to 25 knots are relaxing as surface ridge center located west of the local area is quickly moving closer to here. Thinking this will cause a fast drop off in wind speeds this evening. Therefore, will not follow up the SCY with an Exercise Caution headline since belief is that it will be such a short window of winds still 15-20 knots. Conditions could deteriorate again late Friday night or Saturday. Cold frontal passages at about 48 hour intervals could produce occasional Small Craft Advisory conditions over the weekend into early next week. MEFFER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 30 66 40 52 / 0 0 40 10 BTR 34 69 44 55 / 0 0 20 10 ASD 31 67 44 57 / 0 0 30 10 MSY 38 69 49 58 / 0 0 20 10 GPT 34 64 47 57 / 0 0 30 20 PQL 29 65 45 58 / 0 0 30 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ SHORT TERM...ME LONG TERM....ME AVIATION...ME MARINE...ME