FXUS64 KLIX 070806 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 306 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021 .SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday Night)... High pressure remains anchored across the south-central Plains, forecast to slowly drift into the lower MS valley region early this morning. Model soundings early this AM indicate plenty of radiative cooling processes/subsidence aloft in the vicinity of this nearby high pressure, owing to clear/calm conditions across all areas. We will be on the path towards yet another absolutely beautiful day across the region, similar to yesterday with warm afternoon highs and lower humidity after we mix out later this afternoon. As mentioned yesterday, have once again pulled down forecast Td's from the blends as they typically struggle in this anonymously dry mixing regime, bringing minimum RH's into the lower 30's for many, especially across the northern 2/3rds of the CWA. Can't rule out some patchy, thin upper-level cirrus today with subtle moisture advection in the 250-200mb layer, as well as some contrails but overall a gorgeous day, just wish we can copy/paste today all the way through the rest of the summer, but one can dream. Another pleasant night tonight and into the early morning hours on Saturday, perhaps some patchy mid-level altocumulus associated with increasing H5 to H7 moisture aloft. But otherwise, the aforementioned high pressure will be generally settled into the northern Gulf coast, beginning to transition to our east which will help to rebuild a slow and steady moistening return flow back into the surface to lower-tropospheric levels through the day Saturday. This will help by making it feel not as dry as the previous few days, but will remain rather warm into the afternoon hours with several locations touching the mid 80's. With the increase in low-level/PBL moisture will come the return of some low-level cumulus, or cloud streets but overall a pleasant day to start the weekend. Going into Saturday night and on Sunday, we begin to shift focus to the west at rapid surface cyclogenesis ongoing across the central US. Looking aloft, this system will develop quickly from subtle troughing pressing east across the central Rockies, but deamplifies/stretches progressing east into a weakening ridge. This is a clear indication that this surface low will weaken as it continues well to our north across the Midwest and eventual Ohio valley on Sunday, but will attempt at driving a cold front south and east with time into the lower MS valley/Arklatex region later that day. Frontal orientation parallel to upper-level wind flow will support little movement with this front, with a high likelihood of most of the day on Sunday being dry. The feature to monitor will be the potential for deep convection firing along the front in east Texas/NW LA during peak heating, and how this convection will (try) to propagate eastward. Not entirely confident on this being possible just yet. Due to lower confidence, have decided to ride with NBM PoP's which brings slight rain chances in the first half of the evening/early overnight hours Sunday night generally along and north of I-10/12 and west of I-55, increasing/pulling south after midnight into Monday morning. Will wait until CAM's come into this forecast time frame to better have an idea of storm mode/propagation potential, which should appear more clear by early Saturdays forecast package. KLG .LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)... Monday, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern as a shortwave trough pushes off the eastern coast of the U.S. This shortwave will cause a boundary to set up over our area, mainly in the northern portions of our area. This boundary will linger through Wednesday morning. Southerly surface winds will help to enhance the warm air advection and moisture advection into the region. Upper level divergence during the daytime hours will help to enhance lifting in the environment. As a result, storms will be stronger and more efficient during the peak daytime heating hours Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday into Thursday, an upper level low pressure system will progress through the region and off the eastern coast of the U.S. Southerly surface winds ahead of the system will help to enhance the warm air advection and moisture advection into the area. Upper level divergence will help to enhance the lifting in the environment, particularly Thursday during the afternoon hours. There will be the chance for strong storms associated with this system moving through, but we are not expecting severe storms at this time. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible inside thunderstorm development as this system moves through, especially on Thursday when the upper level divergence is more pronounced. MSW && .AVIATION... .06Z TAF Package... VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. Some wind changes greater than 30 degrees will be possible at some area airports, mainly KMSY. MSW && .MARINE... High pressure will remain in control today through the upcoming weekend, with clear and calm conditions expected through Sunday. A steady Gulf return/onshore wind flow will begin on Saturday, which may lead to some minor enhancement of waves/seas of around 3 to 5 feet for outer Gulf waters this weekend. Beyond this time frame, a weak frontal boundary will become stationary across or near the coast, leading to a few intervals of showers and storms through about mid to late-week. Expect locally higher waves/seas and gusty winds in any stronger thunderstorm development during this time frame. High pressure builds back in late-week into next weekend leading to calm and dry conditions to return. KLG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 79 53 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 83 56 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 83 55 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 83 65 85 69 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 82 57 80 66 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 81 54 80 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$