FXUS64 KSHV 091234
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
634 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

 - Temperatures will remain well above seasonable averages
   throughout the week.

 - Rain chances return to portions of the area Tuesday night into
   Wednesday as a weak disturbance moves through.

 - A stronger system will bring another round of showers and
   possibly some thunderstorms to the area this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Upper-air analysis early this morning shows the majority of our
region in northwest flow. At the same time, a large closed low
currently sits just off the southern coast of Baja California.
While there will not be much movement in this low through the day
today, it will begin pushing towards the northeast this evening
and in Tuesday. As it moves into southwest Texas, it will begin to
weaken as it moves closer to our area on Wednesday. It should
carry enough moisture with it for some rainfall to reach the
ground Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the best chances
across our northern zones. Weak high pressure begins to build into
the region in the wake of this passing disturbance while a
longwave trough begins to dig into the Pacific Northwest, which
will be the main feature for our next round of precipitation this
weekend. This one will need to be watched for timing and intensity
as we could see some thunderstorm potential with it.

As mentioned above in the key messages, temperatures this week
will remain well above seasonable averages, actually around 15-20
degree above. Highs will reach the 70s across the region through
most of this week, with some slightly cooler temperatures thanks
to the rainfall and passing cool front. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

For the ArkLaTex terminals, LIFR/IFR decks at several sites for a
few hours with sct low clouds for this afternoon under occasional
mid and high clouds. SFC winds are S/SW 5KT attm with some gusts
mixing down with heating. SW flow in the lowest levels are 20-30KT
with W Moisture throughout the atmosphere will remain this week
as a first weak storm approaches with a few showers. Then late
week, a stronger closed upper low will bring lots of convection
with focused deep SW flow followed by a fropa. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  60  78  61 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  77  58  77  58 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  78  53  76  52 /   0   0  10  50
TXK  79  60  78  58 /   0   0  10  40
ELD  78  56  75  55 /   0   0   0  30
TYR  80  59  77  58 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  80  59  78  58 /   0   0  10  20
LFK  79  59  78  58 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24