FXUS64 KSHV 150326 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1026 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Tonight's latest update accounts for the ending of Tornado Watch #33 and the issuance of Tornado Watch #38 in our hazard grids, now in effect until 5 AM CDT Saturday morning. Convective initiation has picked up in intensity in southern Arkansas along the dry line as it slowly drifts further eastward. This environment remains conducive for thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. High- resolution guidance continues to suggest more widespread convection developing upstream from southeast Texas heading into Deep East Texas during the pre-dawn hours. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Partly to mostly cloudy skies and warm low to mid 80s. Our dew points in the lower 60s in E TX with initiation on approach. The dry line is knocking on the door at Terrel and will spread into our I-30 corridor with our Wind/Red Flag into the early to mid evening. There are some cooler upper 70s under the thicker remaining blanket of clouds. The SPC has updated with a good nudge back into deep east TX from Natchitoches with the Slight Risk for the rest of day one. The day two is now upgraded to a High Risk just to our East with no changes to the Slight or Moderate zones. Models continue to look at some develop after midnight from deep E TX/NW LA and SE AR predawn. The GFS develops a weak surface low of 998mb SE of Shreveport by 9am, and the push eastward begins to pivot and unfold for the rest of the afternoon. The NAM is similar and the ECMWF too, both farther north with a surface low over S AR by noon. The overnight lows will vary with the dry air intrusion from upper 40s extreme north to muggy mid 60s in the delta Parishes. The convective weather will progress out of our area late Saturday as high pressure arrives to make for a nice quiet Sunday. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 So the 1024mb surface high will drift over our Four-State area overnight into early Sunday with cooler 40s for a day or two on lows. The highs will actually be average for Sunday near 70 degrees. The new week will see a warmer trend back toward 80 by Tuesday and lows in the 50s. However on Wednesday, our next cold front will pass through with some more showers and a few isolated thunderstorms with our highs trending back down into the 60s by the end of this long term with a nice 1030mb surface air mass to put a bow on the Winter season, which btw ends at 4:01 am on Thursday morning. /24/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Windy conditions will persist at all sites for the at least the first couple of hours of the period. However, wind speeds should rapidly diminish to around 10 kts or less before 15/06z. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible early in the period, mainly southeast of a line from KJSO to KELD, but convective coverage and impacts any individual TAF sites are very uncertain. MVFR ceilings are expected at most locations after 15/06z. Another round of convection should develop across East Texas just before sunrise and will spread east and southeast on Saturday, finally exiting to the east late in the period. Flight conditions should rapidly improve back into the VFR range from west to east as the showers and thunderstorms end. Nuttall && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Elevated to critical fire weather danger conditions will begin to subside this evening as the gusty winds start to decouple. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly in the morning before more very dry west Texas air mixes eastward once again. However, winds will be as gusty with the fresh dry air arriving Saturday afternoon. /15/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for portions of Deep East Texas, North Louisiana, Southcentral Arkansas. Spotter activation will be much more likely as early as Saturday Morning for portions of Deep East Texas, Northern Louisiana and South Central Arkansas for the redevelopment of strong to severe thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 59 78 47 69 / 30 40 0 0 MLU 65 78 50 66 / 40 70 10 0 DEQ 48 75 40 65 / 10 30 0 0 TXK 56 76 44 67 / 20 40 0 0 ELD 57 75 43 66 / 30 50 10 0 TYR 55 75 44 70 / 20 20 0 0 GGG 55 77 45 70 / 30 30 0 0 LFK 59 76 47 71 / 30 20 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...09